In a scenario where there is continuous investment and expansion in bio-oil production plants in the 2020-2030 time frame, it is not unrealistic to expect that the production of bio-oil could reach 1 000 000 tons per year by the end of the decade. Conversion of the bio-oil in oil refineries could lead to substitution of fossil transportation fuels on the order of 3 TWh/y. Total investments would be on the order of 10 billion SEK in the bio-oil production plants.
The technical assessment shows that the front-end processes of converting wood to bio-oil that is closest to commercial application is the fast pyrolysis processes. But the hydrothermal liquefaction (HTL) and integrated hydropyrolysis processes (currently TRL 6-7) will also be able to have an impact in the studied time frame.
The technologies for conversion of bio-oil to transportation fuels are still under development but can be considered to be at TRL 6-7 for up to 10 percent co-processing of fast pyrolysis oils in fluidized catalytic crackers at existing oil refineries. Hydrotreatment and hydrodeoxygenation of fast pyrolysis and HTL oils is at TRL 5.