Impact of climate change on wind power in Sweden

In this report, an analysis has been made of how the wind climate in recent decades is linked to variations in the large-scale atmospheric circulation. Also, the performance of a high-resolution climate model has been assessed. It has also been investigated how future wind conditions may change, both in the high-resolution model, but also in large ensembles of global and regional climate model simulations. In addition, an energy systems model has been applied to investigate how a future energy system including an increased fraction of wind power could be optimized to handle variations in wind between years. The results show that the variability in the historical wind climate can be linked to the large-scale atmospheric circulation and that this can be used to categorize different years, both in terms of total wind resource and conditions for periods with low wind speeds.