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Wind and Electricity Prices in Sweden – a Statistical Analysis

| 2024:975 | Rickard Sandberg
Electricity prices in Sweden have displayed stable patterns for an extended period, with higher prices during winter and lower prices during summer. Historically, the primary sources of electricity have been water and nuclear power. However, with one-fifth of Sweden's current electricity production coming from wind power, we expect to experience an increased volatility in electricity prices due to fluctuations in wind conditions.
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In this project, we utilize daily time series data for electricity prices, wind, and temperature over the past year (from September 2022 to August 2023) to examine the impact of wind and temperature on electricity prices across the four different bidding zones: SE1, SE2, SE3, and SE4. We also examine which of the two variables - wind or temperature - better predicts electricity prices.